96th Academy Award Nomination Predictions

~ Jake Ziegler ~ Leave a comment


I love Oscar nomination morning almost as much as I love the actual award show. We usually get some fun surprises. Here’s how I see it going down. Historically, I usually land about 67-75% of these, so expect some differences in the announced list tomorrow. I’m going for it all, no alternates, straight pass/fail this year.

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94th Academy Award Winner Predictions

~ Jake Ziegler ~ Leave a comment

Best Picture
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Conspicuously Absent: Mass

Best Director
Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Conspicuously Absent: Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Actor
Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Should Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Conspicuously Absent: Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Best Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Conspicuously Absent: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Should Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Conspicuously Absent: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Should Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Conspicuously Absent: Ann Dowd, Mass

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Belfast
Should Win: Licorice Pizza
Conspicuously Absent: Mass

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Conspicuously Absent: Nightmare Alley

Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Encanto
Should Win: Flee
Conspicuously Absent: Belle

Best International Feature Film
Will Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Should Win: Drive My Car (Japan)
Conspicuously Absent: A Hero (Iran)

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Should Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Conspicuously Absent: The Rescue

Best Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: The Queen of Basketball
Should Win: Audible
Conspicuously Absent: Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

Best Live Action Short Film
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Should Win: The Long Goodbye
Conspicuously Absent: You’re Dead Helen

Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: Robin Robin
Should Win: Robin Robin
Conspicuously Absent: Flowing Home

Best Original Score
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Conspicuously Absent: The Last Duel

Best Original Song
Will Win: “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die
Should Win: “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die
Conspicuously Absent: “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall

Best Sound
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Conspicuously Absent: Spider-Man: No Way Home

Best Production Design
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Nightmare Alley
Conspicuously Absent: The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Star

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Conspicuously Absent: The Green Knight

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Conspicuously Absent: Nightmare Alley

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Cruella
Should Win: West Side Story
Conspicuously Absent: Spencer

Best Film Editing
Will Win: King Richard
Should Win: tick, tick…BOOM!
Conspicuously Absent: Nightmare Alley

Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Conspicuously Absent: Eternals

2022 Academy Award for Acting Nomination History

~ Jake Ziegler ~ Leave a comment

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson: Third nomination after There Will Be Blood (2007) and Phantom Thread (2017)

Kenneth Branagh: Second nomination after Henry V (1989)

Jane Campion: Second nomination after The Piano (1993)

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi: First nomination

Steven Spielberg: Eighth nomination after Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977), Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982), Schindler’s List (1993 – won), Saving Private Ryan (1998 – won), Munich (2005), and Lincoln (2012)

Best Actor

Javier Bardem: Fourth nomination after Before Night Falls (Lead, 2000), No Country for Old Men (Supporting, 2007 – won), and Biutiful (Lead, 2010)

Benedict Cumberbatch: Second nomination after The Imitation Game (Lead, 2014)

Andrew Garfield: Second nomination after Hacksaw Ridge (Lead, 2016)

Will Smith: Third nomination after Ali (Lead, 2001) and The Pursuit of Happyness (Lead, 2006)

Denzel Washington: Ninth nomination after Cry Freedom (Supporting, 1987), Glory (Supporting, 1989 – won), Malcolm X (Lead, 1992), The Hurricane (Lead, 1999), Training Day (Lead, 2001 – won), Flight (Lead, 2012), Fences (Lead, 2016), and Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Lead, 2017)

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain: Third nomination after The Help (Supporting, 2011) and Zero Dark Thirty (Lead, 2012)

Olivia Colman: Third nomination after The Favourite (Lead, 2018 – won) and The Father (Supporting, 2020)

Penélope Cruz: Fourth nomination after Volver (Lead, 2006), Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Supporting, 2008 – won), and Nine (Supporting, 2009)

Nicole Kidman: Fifth nomination after Moulin Rouge! (Lead, 2001), The Hours (Lead, 2002 – won), Rabbit Hole (Lead, 2010), and Lion (Supporting, 2016)

Kristen Stewart: First nomination

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds: First nomination

Troy Kotsur: First nomination

Jesse Plemons: First nomination

J.K. Simmons: Second nomination after Whiplash (Supporting, 2014 – won)

Kodi Smit-McPhee: First nomination

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley: First nomination

Ariana DeBose: First nomination

Judi Dench: Eighth nomination after Mrs. Brown (Lead, 1997), Shakespeare in Love (Supporting, 1998 – won), Chocolat (Supporting, 2000), Iris (Lead, 2001), Mrs. Henderson Presents (Lead, 2005), Notes on a Scandal (Lead, 2006), and Philomena (Lead, 2013)

Kirsten Dunst: First nomination

Aunjanue Ellis: First nomination

2022 Academy Award Nominations Thoughts, Part 10 – Final

~ Jake Ziegler ~ Leave a comment

My ranked order of the nominees:

  1. The Power of the Dog
  2. Drive My Car
  3. Nightmare Alley
  4. Licorice Pizza
  5. West Side Story
  6. Dune
  7. Belfast
  8. King Richard
  9. CODA
  10. Don’t Look Up

We were guaranteed to get 10 Best Picture nominees this year, and it went pretty much the way most people expected. The biggest surprise was Nightmare Alley squeaking its way in, but I was delighted to see it recognized, as it was one of my top five films of the year. Conversely, Don’t Look Up was amongst my least favorite. I found it totally scattershot and obnoxious, despite yet another great DiCaprio performance. I’ve seen some disparate reactions to CODA – I have one friend who LOVES it, and one who HATES IT – and I find myself in the middle of that. I really enjoyed CODA and am thrilled to see a community that is historically underrepresented on film get some spotlight. It hits a lot of familiar beats that other movies have hit, but it hits them very well. The same could be said about King Richard, as it hits a lot of familiar biopic and sports movie cliches but does them style. Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are terrific, and Saniyya Sidney and Demi Singleton are very well cast as the young Venus and Serena Williams. Plus, Jon Bernthal is a lot of fun as their coach. Kenneth Branagh’s ode to his childhood spent in Belfast is superb and emotionally fulfilling.

The second-most nominated film this year was Dune, and that honor is well-deserved. Dune is practically perfect across the board from a technical standpoint, and it’s also an engaging story with excellent performances. How Denis Villeneuve didn’t make it into Best Director is just insane to me. Steven Spielberg took on the difficult task of re-making a classic and managed to make it reverent to the original and relevant to today’s audience. Licorice Pizza is one of the most misunderstood and mis-marketed movies of the year. I reject the idea that it’s some kind of quirky romance between star-crossed lovers – it’s a disturbing portrait of two people desperate to be anywhere but where they are with a strong undercurrent of dread running throughout. I thought it was fantastic at what it was and also features a deliriously unhinged Bradley Cooper performance that I can’t stop thinking about.

That leaves us with the top two choices – The Power of the Dog and Drive My Car. Both films are positively superb – beautifully acted, perfectly shot, and emotionally engrossing. I’m thrilled that Drive My Car has found an audience and that the Academy continues to broaden its horizons by nominating more international offerings. Dog takes the myth of the American cowboy and completely recontextualizes it.

If I had a ballot, these are the five I would have voted for: Belfast; Drive My Car; Dune; Licorice Pizza; Mass; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; tick, tick…BOOM!; The Tragedy of Macbeth; and West Side Story

This was a tough category to nail down this year, as there were a number of candidates worthy of inclusion here – this also could’ve easily been a top 10. Also, it bears repeating that Denis Villeneuve should absolutely be nominated here. Though to be fair, the five choices the Academy did make are excellent and I can’t say any of them don’t deserve to be here. Campion and Spielberg also competed at the 1994 awards for Schindler’s List and The Piano, so it’s interesting to see them back again but with the favorite status reversed. They’re joined by Oscar vets Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson, both of whom made deeply personal films that clearly resonated with voters.

My ranked order of the nominees:

  1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
  2. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
  3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
  4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

If I had a ballot, these are the five I would have voted for: Jane Campion; Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley; Ryûsuke Hamaguchi; Steven Spielberg; and Denis Villeneuve (Dune)

2022 Academy Award Nominations Thoughts, Part 9

~ Jake Ziegler ~ Leave a comment

None of the five nominees in this category come from Best Picture nominees, which speaks to the fact that women STILL don’t parts in the quantity or quality that men do. Even so, all five of the women gave good to great performances, and I’ve got three of their choices amongst my own. Penélope Cruz gave a heartbreaking performance in her latest collaboration with Pedro Almodovar, the exquisite Parallel Mothers. Kristen Stewart was a revelation as Princess Diana in Spencer. She’s been doing quality work in the years since Twilight and I’m glad to see her get some recognition. For the third time in the last four years, Olivia Colman finds her name on the nominee list, for her nuanced turn in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter. Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman are both tremendous actors and their performances in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Being the Ricardos were representative of the good work they consistently do. The films were good but not great, typical biopic things we’ve seen many times before. I would’ve rather seen Renate Reinsve or Tessa Thompson make it here instead.

My ranked order of the nominees:

  1. Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
  2. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
  3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
  4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

If I had a ballot, these are the five I would have voted for: Olivia Colman; Penélope Cruz; Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World; Kristen Stewart; and Tessa Thompson (Passing)

 

This year’s Best Actor slate features five previous nominees – the fourth time for Javier Bardem, the second for Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield, the third for Will Smith, and the ninth for Denzel Washington. Four of the five match my personal selections. The only one that doesn’t is Javier Bardem, who is a phenomenal actor, but I would’ve rather seen him nominated for Spain’s entry in the International Film race, The Good Boss.

My ranked order of the nominees:

  1. Will Smith, King Richard
  2. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
  3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
  4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
  5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

The other four here do amazing work. Will Smith has been the favorite for most of the campaign season, and it makes sense. It’s his best performance, a fully realized portrait of a unique man with two generational talents living under his roof. Andrew Garfield carries tick, tick…BOOM! with an effortless charisma that perfectly fits the character. Along with his amazing work in Spider-Man: No Way Home, and a supporting role in twice-nominated The Eyes of Tammy Faye, it’s a good year for Garfield. Benedict Cumberbatch was memorably menacing as the damaged cowboy playing brutal mind games with everyone in his life. Finally, Denzel Washington breathed new life into Macbeth, cementing his legendary status with yet another iconic performance.

If I had a ballot, these are the five I would have voted for: Benedict Cumberbatch; Andrew Garfield; Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car); Will Smith; and Denzel Washington