Check out my picks and analysis in all 23 categories!
Here’s my take on what’s going to happen tomorrow night at the 95th Academy Awards ceremony. I loved a lot of the nominees this year and loathed just a few. I’ve seen all but four of them (The Quiet Girl, The Red Suitcase, An Irish Goodbye, and How Do You Measure a Year), but I’ve seen people win Oscar pools who haven’t seen any of the movies, so take that for what it’s worth.
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Batman; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; and Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win – Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win – Avatar: The Way of Water
Conspicuously Absent – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Say what you will about James Cameron’s Avatar films as a whole, but few can deny that the visual effects in each are head and shoulders above the rest. No director has mastered the art of VFX the way James Cameron has.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees – The Banshees of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; TÁR; and Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Conspicuously Absent – Decision to Leave
I see three possibilities here. First, I really don’t see Banshees or TÁR winning this one, their editing isn’t flashy enough. Elvis would certainly win for the MOST editing, with cuts feeling like they came every other second for two-and-a-half hours. Maverick could take this win if voters are feeling like giving it something, and it’s about as well done of an action spectacle as there could be. In the end I feel like Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this one, because no story depends on the seamless editing the way this one does.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees – Babylon; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Will Win – Elvis
Should Win – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Conspicuously Absent – The Woman King
With eight nominations total, and the Best Actor race almost too close to call, this award feels like Elvis’ to take. People have really loved this movie for reasons I cannot understand. This is one of the nominees I mentioned that I loathe. One of the others is fellow nominee Babylon, which could also take this prize. Of all the problems I have with Babylon, I will say the costuming is very well done. Wakanda Forever could also duplicate the first film’s win. Everything Everywhere could ride the wave of a sweep, but I wouldn’t count on it. Mrs. Harris is a nice movie that I enjoyed, but its gift is a ticket to the party.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; The Batman; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Elvis; and The Whale
Will Win – The Batman
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – Crimes of the Future
The Academy often goes for MOST makeup and loves prosthetics here, so The Whale could be a winner. But I think the transformation of Colin Farrell in The Batman will win the voters over. I could also see All Quiet on the Western Front pulling off a win here, as several of the film’s most profound images are aided by great makeup work.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths; Elvis; Empire of Light; and TÁR
Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – Top Gun: Maverick
All awards season leading up to the nominations, Top Gun: Maverick seemed like the prohibitive favorite here. Then it didn’t get nominated and the whole thing is in flux. I love Roger Deakins and can’t begrudge the nomination for Empire of Light, but it has zero chance of winning. Ditto Bardo, which I had a hard time getting through but was admittedly impressed by the cinematography. That leaves All Quiet, Elvis, and TÁR. I think the epic scope the battle scenes interspersed with the claustrophobia of literally being in the trenches will propel All Quiet to the win.
Best Production Design
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; Babylon; Elvis; and The Fabelmans
Will Win – Babylon
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – The Woman King
Babylon is a good choice to win this award. As with costumes, I can admit that the production design was splendid, and I would accept this win with somewhat gritted teeth. My choice here would be All Quiet, which had extraordinary sets that really take the audience into the grim reality of trench warfare. I could also see that winning. The remaining three nominees seem unlikely to win here, but stranger things have happened.
Best Sound
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Batman; Elvis; and Top Gun: Maverick
Will Win – Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
This feels like a two-horse race between All Quiet and Top Gun, and it’s a tough call. Both are great in their own way and would make worthy winners. Avatar could also surprise, and again, it’s hard to argue against Cameron when it comes to technical achievements like this. The Batman feels unlikely, and Elvis is only the thousandth musical biopic to get nominated here so I don’t see it.
Best Original Song
The Nominees – “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman; “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick; “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; “Naatu Naatu,” RRR; and “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win – “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Should Win – “Naatu Naatu,” RRR
Conspicuously Absent – “New Body Rhumba,” White Noise
First things first, Tell It Like a Woman is hand down the worst nominee this year, much worse than Babylon or Elvis. While Babylon and Elvis had some individual merits trapped in a bad film, Woman is a slipshod collection of shorts that vary between mundane and shockingly awful. The nomination for this film is what should have been investigated – not Andrea Riseborough. Nobody had ever heard of Tell It Like a Woman until the music branch inexplicably handed Diane Warren another nomination for a banal, milquetoast ballad that would make Celine Dion weep with sadness.
Thankfully, I did enjoy the other nominees. “Hold My Hand” is an example of a good/cheesy film ballad, if ultimately forgettable. Rihanna returns from wherever she’s been with “Lift Me Up,” joining “All the Stars” from the first Black Panther film as nominees. “This Is a Life” features David Byrne, which automatically makes it cool. But the best choice here is “Naatu Naatu,” an irresistible earworm from the best scene of a well-loved film.
Best Original Score
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Babylon; The Banshees of Inisherin; Everything Everywhere All at Once; and The Fabelmans
Will Win – Babylon
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – Women Talking
This one seems to be between All Quiet and Babylon, both of which are excellent scores. Everything Everywhere could ride the wave, or John Williams could get one more award for The Fabelmans, both scores are very good. Banshees feels a bit like an afterthought in this category.
Best Animated Short Film
The Nominees – The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse; The Flying Sailor; Ice Merchants; My Year of Dicks; and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Will Win – The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Should Win – Ice Merchants
Conspicuously Absent – Black Slide
Short film awards are notoriously hard to predict. I did enjoy all five of these to varying degrees. The Boy etc. feels like the kind of film that could win here, so it’s as good a pick as any. If the Academy wants to be adventurous they could award the animated documentary My Year of Dicks, which was very good and recently had increased visibility by debuting on Hulu.
Best Live Action Short Film
The Nominees – An Irish Goodbye; Ivalu; Le Pupille; Night Ride; and The Red Suitcase
Will Win – Le Pupille
Should Win – Ivalu
Conspicuously Absent – The Lone Wolf
Another hard to predict category. Le Pupille has been pretty visible on Disney+, and it’s a safe choice winner. I’ve only seen three of the nominees (missing Irish and Suitcase), so my choice is Ivalu by default even though I didn’t love it.
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Nominees – The Elephant Whisperers; Haulout; How Do You Measure a Year?; The Martha Mitchell Effect; and Stranger at the Gate
Will Win – Stranger at the Gate
Should Win – Stranger at the Gate
Conspicuously Absent – 38 at the Garden
I missed How Do You Measure a Year, but I really liked the other four nominees. Stranger was the most impactful and is both timeless and timely. Really, any of the nominees could win here, the shorts are a crapshoot.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees – All That Breathes; All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; Fire of Love; A House Made of Splinters; and Navalny
Will Win – All That Breathes
Should Win – Fire of Love
Conspicuously Absent – Bad Axe
The slate of nominees for documentary feature is exceptionally strong. All five nominees are very good to great, and I’d honestly be happy with any of them winning. All That Breathes has taken the bulk of the precursor awards, so I believe that’s the favorite here. But I loved Fire of Love from the first time I saw it at Sundance, and it’s the one that’s stuck with me the most.
Best International Feature Film
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium); EO (Poland); and The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front
Conspicuously Absent – Decision to Leave
It would be a colossal upset if anything other than All Quiet won here. It has nine total nominations, including one for Best Picture, so how could any other movie take this award? I’ve seen four of these nominees (missing Quiet Girl) and this is another strong batch of choices.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio; Marcel the Shell with Shoes On; Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; The Sea Beast; and Turning Red
Will Win – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win – Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Conspicuously Absent – Mad God
Again, a very strong selection of nominees here. I think there were better choices than Sea Beast, but it’s still a solid movie and a fine nominee. For once, Pixar isn’t the frontrunner, as Pinocchio has captured a majority of the awards to this point, and it feels likely to win this one as well. I wouldn’t count out Turning Red entirely though. Marcel is my favorite of the five, and The Last Wish is shockingly excellent. This was a strong year for animation.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Living; Top Gun: Maverick; and Women Talking
Will Win – Women Talking
Should Win – Women Talking
Conspicuously Absent – She Said
With a paltry two total nominations, this category is the only place that Sarah Polley’s brilliant and devastating Women Talking can be recognized. All Quiet could eke out a win here, but I’d be surprised if it’s any of the other three, no matter how much I liked Glass Onion.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees – The Banshees of Inisherin; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; TÁR; and Triangle of Sadness
Will Win – The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win – TÁR
Conspicuously Absent – Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin pulled off an impressive nine nomination total, and it feels like a movie with that many nominations would be rewarded somewhere. But other than Supporting Actress (and a possible Best Actor), this is the category that seems most likely to reward Martin McDonagh’s third masterpiece. Everything Everywhere is a strong number two here and could definitely take the win here. TÁR, Triangle of Sadness, and The Fabelmans feel like longshots.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees – Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; and Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win – Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win – Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Conspicuously Absent – Carey Mulligan, She Said
This is a strong collection of performances, and I could almost see any of them winning. Hong Chau feels unlikely, as The Whale as a divisive film, and most of the praise for it has been heaped on fellow nominee Brendan Fraser. Stephanie Hsu garnered a handful of precursor awards, but Everything Everywhere co-star Jamie Lee Curtis has pulled out more recent, high-profile wins. Angela Bassett has won her share of awards as well, and she feels long overdue for some recognition. The most awarded of this group is Kerry Condon, who does phenomenal work with what could’ve been a forgettable role in a male-dominated story. Condon is the glue that holds Banshees together.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees – Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; and Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Conspicuously Absent – Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
If there is a sure thing, it’s that Ke Huy Quan will win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. He’s won by far the bulk of the precursor awards, and he’s been a complete joy to watch every time he gives a speech. The other four nominees are terrific in their own right, though I would’ve rather seen Paul Dano rather than Hirsch for Fabelmans. Brian Tyree Henry feels like a forgotten nominee, but he’s really great in Causeway, a film that has stayed with me since I watched it in November. The dual nominees from Banshees are both fantastic, and in any other year I’d be rooting hard for Brendan Gleeson to finally win an Oscar. But this will be Quan’s night.
Best Actress
The Nominees – Cate Blanchett, TÁR; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans; and Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win – Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win – Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Conspicuously Absent – Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams is nominated in the wrong category, so she’s out. Blonde was one of the more divisive films and nominations in this year’s crop, so she’s out too. Andrea Riseborough was terrific in the shock nominee of the year, To Leslie, but her award is very much the nomination (well-deserved too!).
That leaves Michelle Yeoh battling against two-time winner and arguably the best actor alive today, Cate Blanchett. Both women did incredible work. Yeoh’s beaten-down drycleaner that finds herself embroiled in a multi-dimensional journey feels real and lived-in, is one of the year’s most satisfying performances. Yeoh has been doing great work for so long, and Everything Everywhere is her crowning achievement thus far. She leads the film expertly through all the multiverses presented by the bananas script. On the other hand, Cate Blanchett’s Lydia Tár is a colossal achievement in its own right. Tár reminds me of another great, Oscar-winning character – Daniel Plainview of There Will Be Blood. That’s how good this performance is. Tár is cruel and egocentric to the nth degree, and it’s hard to take your eyes off her. Blanchett is clearly one of the greatest ever, and in a career littered with great performances, this is her best. Truly either Yeoh or Blanchett would make a worthy winner, but I have to vote with my heart on this one.
Best Actor
The Nominees – Austin Butler, Elvis; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; and Bill Nighy, Living
Will Win – Austin Butler, Elvis
Should Win – Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Conspicuously Absent – Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Bill Nighy and Paul Mescal both did terrific work in films I really enjoyed, so I’m glad to see them here. Neither of them is going to win though, because this is a three-horse race. Austin Butler has only won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Satellite Award, but he somehow feels like the favorite to win. It feels like Rami Malek all over again. Did they learn nothing from that debacle? Conversely, Brendan Fraser has taken 18 precursor prizes, and Colin Farrell leaves them both in the dust with 31. Farrell did astonishing work in Banshees, not to mention that he also was terrific in After Yang, The Batman, and Thirteen Lives. Fraser’s comeback story is a great one, and I think he’s excellent in the role, but the movie isn’t exactly universally loved.
Best Director
The Nominees – Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Todd Field, TÁR; Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; and Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Will Win – Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win – Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Conspicuously Absent – Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Earlier in the year, this award felt destined to go to Steven Spielberg for his autobiographical The Fabelmans. While Spielberg did win the Golden Globe, he was mostly been trampled underfoot by the tidal wave of Daniels. For that matter, so have Todd Field, Ruben Östlund, and Martin McDonagh. Everyone in this category did great work, but anyone winning other than Daniels would be a huge upset.
Best Picture
The Nominees – All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Banshees of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; TÁR; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; and Women Talking
Will Win – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Conspicuously Absent – Aftersun
Apply what I said about the best director category to this category as well. The Fabelmans seemed like the Oscar-baitiest of Oscar-bait movies (and to be fair, I really loved it), but Everything Everywhere All at Once has just run roughshod over everybody. This feels like the biggest sure thing for Best Picture in a number of years. It’s the right call.
Win Tallies
Everything Everywhere All at Once – 5
All Quiet on the Western Front – 2
Babylon – 2
The Banshees of Inisherin – 2
Elvis – 2
All That Breathes – 1
Avatar: The Way of Water – 1
The Batman – 1
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse – 1
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – 1
Le Pupille – 1
RRR – 1
Stranger at the Gate – 1
Top Gun: Maverick – 1
Women Talking – 1
Z At the Movies 